Sam Kantrow

Bye Bye!

March 7th, 2012 at 3:19 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

 

In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past few months, WTNH is powering a new site that’s 100% geared towards weather in Connecticut.  It’s not just a forecast anymore.  It’s video, weather 101, tutorial videos, safety tips, and much much more!  If you haven’t checked it out…go to www.wxedge.com and do so!  You can become a contributor on the site, and blog for the world to see!  With that being said, I say goodbye to the WTNH Weather Blog, and hello to WXedge!


WHERE IS THE SNOW? WHERE IS THE SNOW?…Written by Kevin Arnone

January 19th, 2012 at 3:02 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

Oh I think I finally have some confidence for snow in the forecast this winter.  Sure seems to be a dry winter snow wise, but that all might change tonight and Saturday.  I would like to call these next few days the “Tale of Two Systems.”  Sounds fun doesn’t it?

 

Overview:

High pressure builds in today but is short lived due to Low pressure with an associated Cold Front that will impact the area tonight into early morning.  High pressure once again builds in tomorrow but pushes out by early Saturday, as low pressure will dominate for the weekend bringing unsettled weather.

 

Let’s discuss:

High Pressure does build in today, we’ll have some clear skies to start off the day but increasing as the day progresses.  Don’t expect temperatures to be much higher then mid 30’s.  We do have a southeast wind at 10mph, which will help to increase temperature, just a smidge but 35 F seems to be the high.  Low Pressure builds in tonight, and yeah you guess it, Clouds, Wind and SNOW! I’m pretty confident about the timing of the storm.  Starting around 8pm Thursday and tapering off by 6am.  Totals across the state 1-2 inches inland and tracing to an inch along the coast.   Friday seems to be a cold gusty day.  Highs once again in the mid 30’s but with a cold north wind at 14mph. High pressure does move in after the little clipper storm but quickly moves out to make way for the unsettled weather this weekend.  Tricky Tricky forecast this weekend, but a fun one because potential for significant snowfall is present.  Once again I feel confident about the timing.  Saturday snow will likely start around 3-4 am and end after dinnertime by 6-8 pm. Still just a little to far out to put any amount on snowfall just because any shift in the track of the storm will affect the rain/snow line.  However the models seem to be trending colder, which is good for those snow lovers.  Make sure you stay tuned in to weather updates.

 

Getting Technical:

Quickly want to get technical with you here just to make sure I’m making sense.  Lets just talk about Thursday’s storm.  The surfaces temps are cold enough to support snow, the 850mb as well as 540 thickness lines are well about southern CT.  All supportive for an all snow event, question is how much.  Both the NAM and GFS 6z and 12z runs have consistent timing for the storms impact.  The EURO however had the timing their, but no precip.  The EURO 12z 1/18/12 run to the 0z 1/19/12 run is trending with more QPF though, we will just have to wait for the 12z run today.  OK, back to NAM and GFS.  I like when both models are consistent, makes my job a little easier.  Both the GFS and NAM from 6z and 12z runs are keeping timing same but increasing amount of precip. GOOD FOR SNOW LOVERS!!!!!!  I will have to wait and see what the 18Z runs indicate as well as EURO 12z before I increase and snowfall amounts.  What I look for is model trending, if models are trending consistently for more snow, chances are there will be more snow!! So it’s looking good for some accumulating snowfall tonight!!!


This Week in Weather…Written by Kevin Arnone

January 10th, 2012 at 1:06 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

 

Written by meteorology intern Kevin Arnone:

Where is all the snow? After the record breaking Halloween snowstorm it has been a relatively mild winter.  Just this weekend I saw people golfing at a local golf course.  Can you remember the last time you saw people golfing inConnecticutin January?  I sure can’t.  All the snow lovers must be going crazy with the lack of snow.  After last years record breaking January with 42 inches of snow and 62.6 total snowfall for the winter, I’m sure most people must be happy it’s been a little on the mild side.  Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch, we still have 2 more months of winter.  Actually I may have a bit of snow in my forecast discussion, with a slight cool down for this weekend.

 

Overview:
High pressure builds in today through the day on Wednesday.  A storm system will pass through our area Wednesday night into Thursday.  Cold front will pass Friday leaving a cooler air mass for the area during the weekend giving us more seasonable temps.  Slight warm up for early next week.

 
Let’s discuss:
High pressure will start to build in today from Ohio Valley.  As high pressure starts to build in today, it will interact with a Low Pressure that is moving offshore.  This will cause winds to be steady around 10 mph from the west today with the occasional gust of mid 20’s. With high pressure building in today, an upper air ridge will also build in with it drying out our region.  Clouds will be on the decrease as the day progresses.  Today temperatures remain above normal for this time of the year.

Overnight hours will be clear with the winds diminishing.  Perfect night for radiational cooling (any heat from today’s sun easily escapes into the atmosphere due to cloudless skies).  This will definitely help to lower the temperatures during the over night hours to more seasonable levels.  Wednesday morning and afternoon will be quiet weather wise, with high temps at or a bit above average but as a storm system moves in Wednesday night it starts to get tricky.  From 5 pm onward clouds will be on the increase and winds will likely pick up ahead of the storm.  Forecasting the timing of this storm has been a little difficult as the GFS and NAM as well as the European (forecast models) are not very consistent with timing but amount of precipitation seems to be a lock.  This storm will be on the move quickly and moves out by 3 pm on Thursday.  Any lingering showers are possible but nothing to be concerned about however it will be cloudy most of the day.  A cold front will brush by our region during the day on Friday; this is something that needs mention because temperatures will drop significantly as the highs for the weekend will be below average for this time of the year.
Gettin’ Technical:  OK let me get technical for you guys out there.  I have had some fun forecasting this storm because there are many different factors that may affect the outcome of the precipitation type.  As of right now my confidence for some wintry accumulation for theNew Haven area is low but for other parts ofConnecticut the chance is there.  The GFS 12z run has the precipitation starting around 11 pm Wednesday night where theNAM is a earlier around 8 pm.  The GFS is trending cooler from the 06z to the 12z runs.  Both GFS andNAM have the precipitation moving out of the area by 3 pm on Thursday.  The only chance of any snow accumulation would be in the beginning of the storm.  During the first few hours of the storms impact, evaporation cooling will help to cool the layer and raise the chance of snow.  Bad news is as the night progresses temperatures will be on a rise with a SE flow.  This time of the year when winds come off the ocean or a SE flow it tends to warm the atmosphere.   I checked the European model to try and get some consistency.  The European model has the precip starting around 11 pm but ending Thursday at 5pm.  European andNAM seem to be in agreement with temperatures staying just above freezing as well.

 

Although the GFS andNAMare trending cooler from the 6z to the 12z my level of confidence for snow accumulation is very low.  I am forecasting possible wintry mix for the first few hours of the storm a trace of accumulation is possible but will quickly turn over to rain.  Rain will continue through the over night hours and ending around 3 pm tomorrow.  The North Western part of Connecticut has a chance to see 1-3 inches of snow but that will not be the case here on the coast.

 

 Make sure you watch the latest weather updates as this is one of those cases where the weather can change from model run to model run.  

 

 


This Week in Weather…Written by Michael Pirhalla

January 3rd, 2012 at 12:55 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

Arctic Blast to Start off 2012

 

It’s already early January and many of you are probably thinking…where is all the snow? Well, all the snow lovers out there will need to remain patient. It appears that Connecticut will remain dry and cold for the next several days, with close to no chance of precipitation. Some of the coldest air of the winter is about to pour into our region Tuesday night, and temperatures will likely drop into the single digit range for most of the state. It has been a roller coaster ride of temperatures so far this winter. Yesterday’s high temperature in Bridgeport was 48. It reached 51 on Sunday. The normal temperature range for this time of the year is in the low 40’s, but it will struggle to clear 30 today. Why is going to get so cold out there, and is there any chance of a warm-up anytime soon? I’ll have it covered for you.

 

 

 

Weather Discussion:

A cold front latent with arctic air from Canada passed through Connecticut early this morning bringing in a shot of chilly temperatures. A ridge of high pressure is building over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, resulting in a strong northwesterly flow. Winds typically move clockwise and outward from high pressure systems, and will increase from the northwest with the frontal passage. They will remain a bit brisk, with potential gusts up to 25-30 mph. This will make it feel much colder than it already is due to the wind chill factor. This northwesterly flow will bring substantial cold air advection, or CAA as meteorologists call it. This means that colder air will be spread across an area of warmer air, resulting in the Arctic blast that we will be experiencing. Fortunately we won’t see some of the coldest of temperatures like northern New England – portions of Northern New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine could see lows around -10 or -15 tonight!

It’s not just the northeast that is getting hit with the chilly weather. Canadian air will be sinking as far as South Florida, where Miami and the Everglades are under a Freeze warning until Wednesday morning. Temperatures could fall into the upper 20’s and low 30’s, even that far south. North Florida and South Georgia have been issued Hard Freeze Warnings for temperatures in the low 20’s tonight.

I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a few stray flurries falling statewide throughout the day today. It won’t amount to anything, but these are actually the remnants of Lake Effect snow that has been affecting western and northern New York and Pennsylvania.  Some towns out there have picked up over a foot of snow. However, we have nothing to worry about in CT. Our air mass will dry out by tonight, ending the chance of flurries.

The ridge will be building over the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, which will result in high pressure. The high will move eastward keeping our region dry, with mostly clear skies overnight. The combination of northwest winds and lack of clouds will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens at the shoreline, but single digits further inland. High pressure will build over the state Wednesday, and lower levels of the atmosphere will moisten, bringing in some clouds and a slight chance of flurries.

Weak ridging by Thursday will keep us dry once again, but a weak cold front could approach by Thursday evening into Friday, bringing the chance for a few more clouds. Another weak ridge will build by the weekend, however the upper level flow is expected to shift from the northwest to west-southwest. This will bring our temperatures back into the seasonable range for the weekend, with temperatures rising back into the mid 40’s.

The weather models have picked up the possibility of a disturbance forming off the Mid-Atlantic coast by later in the weekend, but there is a lot of uncertainty over its track. The models don’t show much agreement – one model keeps the storm further off at sea while the other brushes the New England coast. It is still too far off to be certain on its movement, but for the meantime we are in a quiet weather pattern. Just be sure to bundle up before you head out the door.


This Weeks Weather…Written by Kevin Arnone

December 28th, 2011 at 2:31 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

Written by Meteorology Intern Kevin Arnone:

Are you feeling like every time you turn on the weather there is rain in the forecast?  Well believe it or not, you just might have a reason for feeling that way.  Did you know that we broke the record this year with the wettest year on record?  With the .45 inches of rain that soaked the area yesterday, the total precipitation total for this year is a 57.87 inches extending the new record which was broke last week.  The previous record which was set back in 1983 was 56.92 inches.  Will we ever get a break from the rain? Some of you may have thought after the Halloween Snowstorm that we were in store for another snow pounding winter, but so far that hasn’t been the case.  It actually has been a mild winter but is there a possibility for some snow in my forecast discussion?

 

 

 

Overview:

Cold front passes by today.  High pressure will build in the area from the south followed by a warm front that will push through Thursday night.  Another Low pressure system will come from the west Friday and move through by Saturday afternoon.  Cold front will make its way towards the area for early next week.


Meteorology Discussion:

A cold front will brush by the area by 3 P.M. today helping to clear out the clouds by nightfall.  In addition to the clearing of the clouds, temperatures will drop significantly.  Radiational cooling (Any heat from today’s sun easily escapes into the atmosphere due to cloudless skies) will definitely be a factor tonight with the clear skies through the overnight hours.  The winds today are something that certainly needs to be mentioned.  Although the winds will be below “Wind Advisory” conditions which is (Sustained winds 31-39 mph for at least 1 hour or any gusts to 46-57 mph), gusts will peak upwards to 35 mph from the west, enough to maybe knock down some loose tree limbs.  The Low pressure that affected the area last night is still close enough to us to help produce winds from the west that are bringing colder air to the area which is called cold advection.  This in turn will affect today’s high from getting much warmer then it is now.
The cold front will surely leave an impact as tonight will be much cooler then the previous few nights.  The winds will decrease as the night progresses, but will be quite chilly.  As high pressure builds in during the over night hours and early tomorrow morning, during the day it will be quiet weather wise, however there will be increasing clouds as the day progresses with an approaching warm front.  Will be a chilly start to the day Thursday, expect high temperatures to be around or below normal for this time of year.  Thursday Night has some concern of unpleasantness with an approaching warm front, moisture from the Great Lakes region will develop ahead of it possibly affecting our area late Thursday night into Friday Morning however the amount of moisture is still up in the air (no pun intended).  Temperatures will be cold enough for snow during the overnight hours, amount of moisture will be the deciding factor.  The main concern for us is Friday night as a low pressure system from the west moves through the area during the overnight hours bringing more unpleasant weather.  There is a chance for possible snowfall depending upon timing of the storm but nothing to be to concerned about. High pressure once again builds in for Sunday, giving us a slight warm up.  A cold front will quickly push the high pressure offshore early next week as I track another system for the beginning of the work week.   

Gettin’ Technical:  

I’ll make this quick for all you weather geeks out there.  From the 6z NAM and GFS to the 12z NAM and GFS, both models are consistently trending to make us dryer for Thursday night, so my level of confidence for any precipitation is quickly diminishing.  So those snow lovers may have to wait a little longer as there is a possibility for snow showers Friday Night into Saturday.  However my confidence level with this storm is low as well.  Both the 12z NAM and GFS are anticipating moisture however the timing is not consistent.  The GFS has precipitation as all rain from Friday afternoon ending just after midnight.  The NAM however is pushing for possible snow starting 3am Saturday morning ending by noon.  On the other hand, it would only be a trace of snow at most.  I then looked at the European model to try and find some consistency, the European models timing is consistent with the NAM but seems to be warmer temperatures meaning mostly rain event.  My confidence for snow is very low at the very most for this event, better luck next time!  I think you snow lovers might just have to wait even longer.


Fall Foliage

October 7th, 2011 at 3:37 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

If you happen to drive around the state, you might notice that the fall foliage isn’t out in full force just yet…but go just a bit to the north of us, and you’ll see lots of changing colors.  Central and northern New England have peak conditions, as you can see by the map below.

Want some more info?  Click on the map and Gil will give you the fall foliage forecast for Friday (say that one 5-times fast) and into the weekend.  Don’t worry, we’ll see peak conditions within a few weeks in Connecticut!

 

Enjoy your weekend & stay safe!

-Sam Kantrow


Brrrrr

October 5th, 2011 at 5:38 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

If you happen to make your way outside tonight, you’ll notice that temperatures are going to be downright cold!  Right now, we’ve got a frost advisory and a freeze warning in effect for Litchfield County tonight from Midnight-10AM tomorrow morning.  With light winds, and clear skies overnight, we’ll see temperatures sharply fall as the sun goes down tonight.

 

We’re forecasting temps in the 40s by midnight, and for many inland spots, dropping down into the 30s by daybreak.  The ingredients for unseasonably cold temperatures are there, so it should be interesting to see how cool it gets tonight.  This has caused the alarm bells to ring at the National Weather Service, and they’ve issued the first freeze warning of the season!  Now with that being said, lets get meteorological!

There are many factors that can cause unseasonably cool temperatures including clear skies, dry air, a long night, light wind, and even snow cover.  All of these factors combined increase what meteorologists call radiational cooling.  This is the main reason that temperatures fall overnight!  The earth is constantly emitting radation, and thus is constantly losing heat.  The heat needed to maintain the earths daytime temperature is mainly received by the sun, which is radiating towards the earth.  At night, there is no radiation coming from the sun, because the sun is not in direct line of site with our side of the earth, so the earth is therefore resulting in a net loss of energy.  When this energy is lost, the temperatures cool, and tend to fall throughout the night with the coolest temperature being right around sunrise.

On a night like tonight, clear skies are one of the main factors allowing for us to get as cold as we’ll get.  When there are no clouds at night, the longwave radation that the earth is emitting has a much easier time escaping into space.  If the night is cloudy, temperatures can struggle to fall because the radiation that’s being emitted by earth will be relected back to earth, and is then absorbed again.  The clouds form a big blanker over us when we’re cloudy!

Clear skies aren’t enough to let our temperatures to get to record cold…you need dry air also!  Even when the skies are clear, the water vapor in the air is doing the same thing as a cloudy sky.  It’s allowing us to remain blanketed and not letting the energy that the earth is emitting to escape as easily.  So when the air is very dry, it will help allow the temperatures to get cold.

Finally, another important factor that will allow our temperatures to get so cool tonight is light winds.  When the wind is light, it doesn’t allow the air near the surface to mix as much.  Why is this important?  Because the ground surface is the source of all of the cooling, the coolest temperatures will be right at the surface of the earth.  When the wind is very light, this lack of mixing with the warmer air aloft will let the cool temperatures to reach their full potential!

Don’t worry about the wintertime cold tonight, by this weekend temperatures are forecast to get above 80 again with lots of sun!  Gotta love the weather in New England :)