WHERE IS THE SNOW? WHERE IS THE SNOW?…Written by Kevin Arnone

January 19th, 2012 at 3:02 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

Oh I think I finally have some confidence for snow in the forecast this winter.  Sure seems to be a dry winter snow wise, but that all might change tonight and Saturday.  I would like to call these next few days the “Tale of Two Systems.”  Sounds fun doesn’t it?

 

Overview:

High pressure builds in today but is short lived due to Low pressure with an associated Cold Front that will impact the area tonight into early morning.  High pressure once again builds in tomorrow but pushes out by early Saturday, as low pressure will dominate for the weekend bringing unsettled weather.

 

Let’s discuss:

High Pressure does build in today, we’ll have some clear skies to start off the day but increasing as the day progresses.  Don’t expect temperatures to be much higher then mid 30’s.  We do have a southeast wind at 10mph, which will help to increase temperature, just a smidge but 35 F seems to be the high.  Low Pressure builds in tonight, and yeah you guess it, Clouds, Wind and SNOW! I’m pretty confident about the timing of the storm.  Starting around 8pm Thursday and tapering off by 6am.  Totals across the state 1-2 inches inland and tracing to an inch along the coast.   Friday seems to be a cold gusty day.  Highs once again in the mid 30’s but with a cold north wind at 14mph. High pressure does move in after the little clipper storm but quickly moves out to make way for the unsettled weather this weekend.  Tricky Tricky forecast this weekend, but a fun one because potential for significant snowfall is present.  Once again I feel confident about the timing.  Saturday snow will likely start around 3-4 am and end after dinnertime by 6-8 pm. Still just a little to far out to put any amount on snowfall just because any shift in the track of the storm will affect the rain/snow line.  However the models seem to be trending colder, which is good for those snow lovers.  Make sure you stay tuned in to weather updates.

 

Getting Technical:

Quickly want to get technical with you here just to make sure I’m making sense.  Lets just talk about Thursday’s storm.  The surfaces temps are cold enough to support snow, the 850mb as well as 540 thickness lines are well about southern CT.  All supportive for an all snow event, question is how much.  Both the NAM and GFS 6z and 12z runs have consistent timing for the storms impact.  The EURO however had the timing their, but no precip.  The EURO 12z 1/18/12 run to the 0z 1/19/12 run is trending with more QPF though, we will just have to wait for the 12z run today.  OK, back to NAM and GFS.  I like when both models are consistent, makes my job a little easier.  Both the GFS and NAM from 6z and 12z runs are keeping timing same but increasing amount of precip. GOOD FOR SNOW LOVERS!!!!!!  I will have to wait and see what the 18Z runs indicate as well as EURO 12z before I increase and snowfall amounts.  What I look for is model trending, if models are trending consistently for more snow, chances are there will be more snow!! So it’s looking good for some accumulating snowfall tonight!!!

8 Responses to “WHERE IS THE SNOW? WHERE IS THE SNOW?…Written by Kevin Arnone”

  1. KY says:

    It’s fun to watch Erica try to make believe snow is coming – lol. What is the thing with hyping snow on the East Coast? When will you guys learn this is not the snow belt, we get a few bad winters mixed in with many mild winters. It’s CT not the Upper Midwest or the Mts of the West Coast. Give the hype a rest.

  2. Shoreliner says:

    I know, I’ve noticed that, too! She always tries to sneak in that little snow icon at the end of the 8 day forecast. Channel 3 (another group of huge Winter fans) does the same thing.

    Don’t worry, the smiles will soon be fading from their faces when we are facing another hot, humid Summer.

  3. Shoreliner says:

    Heh, you know it’s been a quiet Winter when Gil gets all excited over a few flurries in the forecast! LOL!!!!!

  4. SI says:

    Shoreliner:
    Your still out there my coastal lad!
    We have had a nice mild winter in the Atlantic lowlands of the East Coast. Here along the CT coast I onlu had to use the push broom once to push the snow of the driveway. Otherwise, since late November, high pressure, sunshine, and mild temps have been the rule in the Tri-State area. The next few days look sunny and mild, then by this weekend some light precip might pass through the region (more likely south of us), and then another moderation in temps by the middle of next week with sunny and dry weather.

    In just about 14 days or so (the last week of Feb) the odds of snow for the Tri-State area fall like a rock. Also, at our latitude (40 North) even if snow does fall after mid Feb – the building solar angle will make short work of it. So if we can get through the next two weeks…we truly beat winter this year.

    Cheers.

  5. Shoreliner says:

    Another Tri-State dud, Si! Wish every storm could be like this one! I’ll bet there are a lot of ticked off snow lovers today! LOL!!!!!!

  6. Bob in New Hampshire says:

    Not much snow in New England either.

  7. Shoreliner says:

    It’s so cute to watch Erika Grow pretend there’s snow coming when the temps are forecasted to be near & in the 50s next week! Give it a rest with the hype. Like KY said, this is not the snow belt. Yes, we get storms, but they are for the most part few & far in between. If you want it so badly, move out the the Midwest, or to the mountains of the Northwest. You’ll have all you want & more.

  8. Dan Kinsman says:

    I don’t think we are going to have much snow this winter. In 2011 we got hit with hurricane Irene and had a warm and balmy winter last year. This year we got hit with hurricane Sandy and see the same walm balmy weather pattern this year. I expecting not much for snow.

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