This Week in Weather…Written by Kevin ArnoneJanuary 10th, 2012 at 1:06 pm by Sam Kantrow under Weather, WTNH Blogs
Written by meteorology intern Kevin Arnone:
Where is all the snow? After the record breaking Halloween snowstorm it has been a relatively mild winter. Just this weekend I saw people golfing at a local golf course. Can you remember the last time you saw people golfing inConnecticutin January? I sure can’t. All the snow lovers must be going crazy with the lack of snow. After last years record breaking January with 42 inches of snow and 62.6 total snowfall for the winter, I’m sure most people must be happy it’s been a little on the mild side. Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch, we still have 2 more months of winter. Actually I may have a bit of snow in my forecast discussion, with a slight cool down for this weekend.
High pressure builds in today through the day on Wednesday. A storm system will pass through our area Wednesday night into Thursday. Cold front will pass Friday leaving a cooler air mass for the area during the weekend giving us more seasonable temps. Slight warm up for early next week.
High pressure will start to build in today from Ohio Valley. As high pressure starts to build in today, it will interact with a Low Pressure that is moving offshore. This will cause winds to be steady around 10 mph from the west today with the occasional gust of mid 20’s. With high pressure building in today, an upper air ridge will also build in with it drying out our region. Clouds will be on the decrease as the day progresses. Today temperatures remain above normal for this time of the year.
Overnight hours will be clear with the winds diminishing. Perfect night for radiational cooling (any heat from today’s sun easily escapes into the atmosphere due to cloudless skies). This will definitely help to lower the temperatures during the over night hours to more seasonable levels. Wednesday morning and afternoon will be quiet weather wise, with high temps at or a bit above average but as a storm system moves in Wednesday night it starts to get tricky. From 5 pm onward clouds will be on the increase and winds will likely pick up ahead of the storm. Forecasting the timing of this storm has been a little difficult as the GFS and NAM as well as the European (forecast models) are not very consistent with timing but amount of precipitation seems to be a lock. This storm will be on the move quickly and moves out by 3 pm on Thursday. Any lingering showers are possible but nothing to be concerned about however it will be cloudy most of the day. A cold front will brush by our region during the day on Friday; this is something that needs mention because temperatures will drop significantly as the highs for the weekend will be below average for this time of the year.
Gettin’ Technical: OK let me get technical for you guys out there. I have had some fun forecasting this storm because there are many different factors that may affect the outcome of the precipitation type. As of right now my confidence for some wintry accumulation for theNew Haven area is low but for other parts ofConnecticut the chance is there. The GFS 12z run has the precipitation starting around 11 pm Wednesday night where theNAM is a earlier around 8 pm. The GFS is trending cooler from the 06z to the 12z runs. Both GFS andNAM have the precipitation moving out of the area by 3 pm on Thursday. The only chance of any snow accumulation would be in the beginning of the storm. During the first few hours of the storms impact, evaporation cooling will help to cool the layer and raise the chance of snow. Bad news is as the night progresses temperatures will be on a rise with a SE flow. This time of the year when winds come off the ocean or a SE flow it tends to warm the atmosphere. I checked the European model to try and get some consistency. The European model has the precip starting around 11 pm but ending Thursday at 5pm. European andNAM seem to be in agreement with temperatures staying just above freezing as well.
Although the GFS andNAMare trending cooler from the 6z to the 12z my level of confidence for snow accumulation is very low. I am forecasting possible wintry mix for the first few hours of the storm a trace of accumulation is possible but will quickly turn over to rain. Rain will continue through the over night hours and ending around 3 pm tomorrow. The North Western part of Connecticut has a chance to see 1-3 inches of snow but that will not be the case here on the coast.
Make sure you watch the latest weather updates as this is one of those cases where the weather can change from model run to model run.