This Weeks Weather…Written by Kevin Arnone

December 28th, 2011 at 2:31 pm by under Weather, WTNH Blogs

Written by Meteorology Intern Kevin Arnone:

Are you feeling like every time you turn on the weather there is rain in the forecast?  Well believe it or not, you just might have a reason for feeling that way.  Did you know that we broke the record this year with the wettest year on record?  With the .45 inches of rain that soaked the area yesterday, the total precipitation total for this year is a 57.87 inches extending the new record which was broke last week.  The previous record which was set back in 1983 was 56.92 inches.  Will we ever get a break from the rain? Some of you may have thought after the Halloween Snowstorm that we were in store for another snow pounding winter, but so far that hasn’t been the case.  It actually has been a mild winter but is there a possibility for some snow in my forecast discussion?

 

 

 

Overview:

Cold front passes by today.  High pressure will build in the area from the south followed by a warm front that will push through Thursday night.  Another Low pressure system will come from the west Friday and move through by Saturday afternoon.  Cold front will make its way towards the area for early next week.


Meteorology Discussion:

A cold front will brush by the area by 3 P.M. today helping to clear out the clouds by nightfall.  In addition to the clearing of the clouds, temperatures will drop significantly.  Radiational cooling (Any heat from today’s sun easily escapes into the atmosphere due to cloudless skies) will definitely be a factor tonight with the clear skies through the overnight hours.  The winds today are something that certainly needs to be mentioned.  Although the winds will be below “Wind Advisory” conditions which is (Sustained winds 31-39 mph for at least 1 hour or any gusts to 46-57 mph), gusts will peak upwards to 35 mph from the west, enough to maybe knock down some loose tree limbs.  The Low pressure that affected the area last night is still close enough to us to help produce winds from the west that are bringing colder air to the area which is called cold advection.  This in turn will affect today’s high from getting much warmer then it is now.
The cold front will surely leave an impact as tonight will be much cooler then the previous few nights.  The winds will decrease as the night progresses, but will be quite chilly.  As high pressure builds in during the over night hours and early tomorrow morning, during the day it will be quiet weather wise, however there will be increasing clouds as the day progresses with an approaching warm front.  Will be a chilly start to the day Thursday, expect high temperatures to be around or below normal for this time of year.  Thursday Night has some concern of unpleasantness with an approaching warm front, moisture from the Great Lakes region will develop ahead of it possibly affecting our area late Thursday night into Friday Morning however the amount of moisture is still up in the air (no pun intended).  Temperatures will be cold enough for snow during the overnight hours, amount of moisture will be the deciding factor.  The main concern for us is Friday night as a low pressure system from the west moves through the area during the overnight hours bringing more unpleasant weather.  There is a chance for possible snowfall depending upon timing of the storm but nothing to be to concerned about. High pressure once again builds in for Sunday, giving us a slight warm up.  A cold front will quickly push the high pressure offshore early next week as I track another system for the beginning of the work week.   

Gettin’ Technical:  

I’ll make this quick for all you weather geeks out there.  From the 6z NAM and GFS to the 12z NAM and GFS, both models are consistently trending to make us dryer for Thursday night, so my level of confidence for any precipitation is quickly diminishing.  So those snow lovers may have to wait a little longer as there is a possibility for snow showers Friday Night into Saturday.  However my confidence level with this storm is low as well.  Both the 12z NAM and GFS are anticipating moisture however the timing is not consistent.  The GFS has precipitation as all rain from Friday afternoon ending just after midnight.  The NAM however is pushing for possible snow starting 3am Saturday morning ending by noon.  On the other hand, it would only be a trace of snow at most.  I then looked at the European model to try and find some consistency, the European models timing is consistent with the NAM but seems to be warmer temperatures meaning mostly rain event.  My confidence for snow is very low at the very most for this event, better luck next time!  I think you snow lovers might just have to wait even longer.

3 Responses to “This Weeks Weather…Written by Kevin Arnone”

  1. JC says:

    Wow…a blog from a member of News Channel 8 Weather Dept that seems “happy” about the mild winter so far? I would think the winter weather hypers over there would be seeing red by now – lol and blogging about how the “see a pattern in the models” that might bring snow very soon – lol.

    I guess it goes to prove that last winter truly was a once in a lifetime event in the Tri-State area.

  2. Bob in New Hampshire says:

    Even up here in western New Hampshire there’s no snow on the ground and it’s now January. Talk about a mild winter, this reminds me more of my childhood winters in southern Connecticut than what you would expect in northern New England. The only snow is the man-made stuff at the ski resorts. Last year at this time we were buried. At least it’s easy on the heating bill.

  3. Shoreliner says:

    No complaints from me about the mild weather & lack of snow so far this Winter! It can stay like this all Winter & I’ll be a happy camper!

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